This is coming from a standard roster point of view.
I have noticed that if you do something drastic like take two big time WR off the board early with a late pick in a snake draft, that you will freak out all those folks who drafted a RB in the picks before you. They will be sent scrambling to fill the void.
It is supply and demand. You will have increased the demand on a thin position causing others to scramble. As each of them watch a WR go off the board they get more and more frantic about having to fill three WR slots. Wouldn't you? Once the season starts that WR free agency pool gets dipped into more than the buffallo sauce at Burger King across from a Jenny Craig food pick up vendor.
It is scary to look at your team and watch as the 2nd round comes and goes, and now the 3rd round is three quarters of the way over, and you still have not running backs. You start to think you may have tanked this entire draft.
If all goes as planned you didn't.
You can't assume after you have made this leap that you MUST draft RB with your next two picks. By the time your next pick comes up though, you will see that everyone was frantically drafting WR. In their wake they have let very quality running backs slip farther than they should have. You should be able to leisurely snag RB with your next few picks, but you have to watch the QB situation very close. Most likely you are looking at guys like Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer etc... Not scrubs by any means. If you start to see the QB situation get hairy then you need to address it.
You can shore up your WR trio in the mid-late rounds. I really like McCluster, but he is getting harder to get now. Julian Edelman could be a great late pick, Bernard Berrian, Mohamed Massaquoi, Kenny Britt, Mike Wallace (PIT).
The reason why I believe this is a good strategy is because today's NFL bears few teams that truly feature a back. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew are in a class above the rest this year, and if you do not have pick 1,2 or 3 then you can safely cross those three names right off any list, spreadsheet or draft board hanging off your friend's back deck. Occasionaly there is that guy that drafts Peyton Manning...every year...first round...no matter what pick he has. Which honestly is not the worst idea either.
Teams keep backs fresh nowadays. Just look at DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Who willl outproduce who? Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw? There was even a time in New York (really it's New Jersey) that you could roster Jacobs, Bradshaw and Derrick Ward and all three could put up respectable numbers in a single week. The days of Earth(Jacobs) , Wind(Ward) and Fire(Bradshaw) .
Of course every draft should be approached differently. I just think it is almost tactical to do the exact opposite of what everyone believes you are going to do. Alot of leagues are timed. Online draftees usually have about 2 minutes. In live drafts, usually with your friends, not alot of people respect the time clock. At least from my experience.
The late 1st round pick gets a bad rap, but being at the back of the draft with two close together picks gives the drafter a semblance of control over how the draft will go.
DRAFT STRATEGY: Control Supply and Demand
Posted on: August 31, 2010 1:56 pm
Category: Fantasy Football